Are New Zealand’s low Covid 19 Numbers Due to Good Leadership, Luck, or Something Else?

Most news media, in New Zealand and particularly in the USA are praising our Prime minister Jacinda Arden for her amazing leadership during the pandemic, which (at least according to this handful of journalists) saved thousands of lives.

There is no doubt our Covid 19 statistics are impressive compared to others, but are our amazing statistics a result of good leadership and amazing medical management, or are they a result of luck?  Or, could there be another explanation?

Below we look at some of the statistics and consider some possibilities.

Firstly, our cases per million of population are lower than the World average, but not by a huge amount.

World average number of cases per million:  376.  NZ: 305

Despite claims by the Prime minister that we have “one of the lowest rates of Covid 19 in the World”, unfortunately that is completely incorrect.  In fact, there are currently at least 115 countries with lower rates than NZ.

Second, is the death rate from Covid 19.

World average percentage of deaths from Covid 19:  7%.  NZ 1.2%

Because we have had so few people become seriously ill that they have not had to be hospitalised, our very low death rate appears to not be from the amazing healthcare we can offer, but for some other reason.  Studies overseas to date have shown high amounts of vitamin D can result in people who contract the disease having milder symptoms, so this may explain the lower death rate both here and in Australia (with both just finishing summer).

Third, is the “recovered” rate.

World average for people recovered from Covid 19:  29%.  NZ 77%

This is where things get a little ‘shady’.  New Zealand appears to have come up with it’s own definition of “recovered” in regards to Covid 19, which is ‘The patient must have caught Covid 19 at least ten days before, and had 48 hours of no symptoms”.  Basically what happens is, a nurse will call the person if they are self isolating after ten days of them being diagnosed, if they reply they have no symptoms for 48 hours they are deemed to be “recovered”.  No further tests, no medical examination, just their self report.  So, what is the problem with that?  The problem is, most other countries require at least one test to come back as negative after the person reports no symptoms.  In the US, the person has to have two tests come back as negative before they are considered “recovered”.  

The danger of NZ having its own, what has to be described as very slack bordering on unprofessional definition for recovery is firstly it makes our statistics look better than what they probably are (i.e. some may not have actually recovered as yet but are deemed as recovered).  It also poses the risk of these now officially announced “recovered” patients returning to work (especially under Level three and Level two), and potentially infecting many others.

Taking all these statistics into account, we have to ask, are we just lucky, is it due to the skill of the country’s leadership, or is it purposeful manipulation of the figures to ‘look good’ in an election year?  That’s not to say the Government is taking huge risks with our citizens, but maybe that they knew or know the virus was and is not a threat to us, but they put in place extreme restrictions anyway to make a statement of “look what we did that saved our country”, however at the same time our economy is in ruins, and our international tourism that we largely survive on will be effectively non-existent for at least 12 months.  Maybe they did maybe they didn’t save lives, but what is most important is that our figures are correct, based on best practice, so we don’t enter the next stages of the current crisis with false hope that everything will be fine.

What we need to do over the next two weeks of level three.

1) We need to increase our random testing so we approach 25% of the population having been tested, and have no cases of community transmission for at least the last seven days of level three.  The random testing also needs to be changed in how it is done, having voluntary testing stations is not ruling out counfounding variables.  For example, people who feel there is something stigmatising about having Covid 19, are not going to come forward for testing or volunteer in random samples.  Sick people are also not going to be coming out to the supermarkets (where the random tests are often done) and be tested.  The random testing needs to be randomly selected streets, where every resident in that street is tested – and it is compulsory, unless there is a compelling reason not to have the test.

2) The whole definition of “recovered” needs to be re-evaluated, the MOH need to admit they had it wrong, and retest every patient to date.  Otherwise they have 1400 potential timebombs.

Level Three is either going to go really well, and the actions taken by the Government, along with our high vitamin D intake, and a bit of ‘luck’ will see us all but eliminate the virus, at least until an inevitable second wave hits, probably within weeks of the border being opened back up. Or, it will see the community transmission that our testing has failed to pick up run rampant, which may not be evident until the end of the first week of level two if level three only runs for two weeks (which will be a mistake in itself, it needs to be four).  If this happens we will see daily case numbers in the hundreds, and deaths will follow – by the dozens. Lets hope scenario one is what we see, for everyone’s sake, including the currently amazing reputation of the current Government.

About the author:  The author of this opinion piece has over twenty years experience in human services and healthcare, eight years of university level study, with graduate and post graduate qualifications in health sciences.